US gasoline prices continue climbing toward $5 per gallon, with the national average reaching $4.52 on May 11, 2026 - a 52% surge since the Iran conflict began. JP Morgan warns prices could soon hit $5/gallon as refinery constraints and Middle East tensions squeeze global fuel supplies. The Midwest has been particularly hard-hit, with Ohio experiencing a 72% price jump, while inflation spikes in both the US (3.8%) and Germany (2.9%) reflect the conflict's global economic ripple effects. The Independent+2
California maintains the highest prices at $6.16/gallon, while Oklahoma remains the only state below $4 at $3.98. The Midwest shows extreme volatility, with Ohio's 72% increase far exceeding the national average. This regional disparity highlights how local refinery capacity and distribution networks struggle to adapt to global supply shocks. The Independent+2
The Iran conflict has become a primary inflation driver globally:
Key developments worsening the crisis:
The economic consequences are mounting:
While JP Morgan predicts $5/gallon is possible, analysts like Stephen Schork remain skeptical of reaching that threshold. However, all agree that refinery issues and summer demand will keep prices elevated in coming months, with the conflict's duration being the critical variable. The Independent+2