The Horn of Africa faces mounting instability as Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate military deployments around the northern Tigray region. Despite a peace deal signed three years ago, the specter of renewed conflict looms large, with troop buildups, shifting alliances, and mass displacement fueling fears among local residents and international observers. The situation is further complicated by Ethiopia’s demands for access to a port and accusations of territorial occupation, raising the risk of a broader regional crisis. Bloomberg+2
Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have mobilized troops and military equipment along their shared border and in northern Tigray. Regional diplomats report a significant increase in military activity since mid-February 2026. Notably, Eritrea has aligned more closely with Tigrayan insurgents, marking a dramatic shift in alliances that could destabilize the fragile peace. The Ethiopian government, led by Abiy Ahmed, has also accused Eritrea of occupying parts of its territory, intensifying the standoff. Bloomberg+2
The renewed tensions have triggered a fresh wave of displacement. Thousands of residents are leaving Tigray amid fears of another outbreak of violence. In Mekelle, the regional capital, a fragile calm persists, but many displaced people remain in limbo, uncertain about their future. The humanitarian situation is dire, with limited access to aid and basic services, and the psychological toll on the population is mounting as memories of the previous civil war resurface. The Independent+2
International diplomats are urging restraint and dialogue to prevent a relapse into full-scale war. The situation has put Abiy Ahmed—once celebrated for his Nobel Peace Prize and rapprochement with Tigray—under intense scrutiny as the risk of conflict threatens to undermine regional stability. The demands for a port and territorial disputes with Eritrea further complicate diplomatic efforts, making a peaceful resolution increasingly urgent yet elusive. Deutsche Welle+2